Uk Housing Market

The recent UK housing market comments and data signal the end of London’s housing boom but highlight the unchanged underlying UK market fundamentals which in turn are likely to keep the market stable long term. 

According to a recent UBS (Swiss Investment bank) index that ranks cities with the biggest real estate bubbles, London has moved out of bubble-risk territory in which stood for almost four years. London’s housing market shows the subdued house price growth, currently below the UK city average. In the last 12 months up to August ’19, 25 of London’s 33 boroughs have recoded prices fall. London market for homes worth £2m or more has been particularly slow.  

The first batch of Land Registry data for September ’19 (published 16 October ’19) for England and Wales, highlights the following: 

• 91,459 sales were registered in September 2019

• 2.9% increase in newbuild properties compared to September 2018

• There were 545 residential properties in England and Wales sold for over £1 million

• The majority of sold properties were freehold although the total number is 4.2 % down compared to September 2018. The total of newly built properties sold in September 2019 Is up 2.9%.

• The most expensive residential property sold in September was in Kensington and Chelsea for £17,000,000

• the cheapest residential property sold in September was in Sunderland for £16,000*

Many commentators suggest that the prime & luxury London housing market could move forward if the government cuts stamp duty. Also, the opinion is that “the atmosphere of unpredictability hanging over the economy and the uncertainty bedevilling international businesses with UK arms (as well as the oft-cited effects of higher stamp duty on expensive homes) have discouraged people from making the big financial commitment entailed in a top-end London house purchase.” **

The underlying UK market fundamentals remain strong as there is still lack of supply, a steady number of completed sales, good rate of mortgage approvals and low interest rates. Therefore, the  expectation is that, as the broader context becomes clearer, the market will regain some of its lost momentum.

In the meanwhile, there are opportunities for potential buyers, especially for fist-time buyers, owner-occupiers or corporate landlords able to raise deposits and mortgages as the competition amongst banks increases and new flexible finance products also come to light.

* Land Registry

** FT